The Impact of Satellite-derived Winds on Hurricane Analysis and Track Forecasting

While q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n f rom m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s a t e l l i t e s has l ong been recognized as c r i t i c a l f o r m o n i t o r i n g t r o p i c a l cyclone a c t i v i t y , q u a n t i t a t i v e data are r e q u i r e d to improve the o b j e c t i v e ana lys i s and numerical , weather p r e d i c t i o n o f these events . I n t h i s paper, r e s u l t s are presented which show t h a t the i n c l u s i o n o f h i g h d e n s i t y , m u l t i s p e c t r a l s a t e l l i t e d e r i v e d i n f o r m a t i o n i n t o the ana ly s i s o f t r o p i c a l cyclone environmental wind f i e l d s can e f f e c t i v e l y reduce the e r r o r o f o b j e c t i v e t r a c k f o r e c a s t s . 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n Ana lys i s u n c e r t a i n t i e s are o f t e n c i t e d as a major source o f f o r e c a s t e r r o r s i n numerica l models. This i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e i n hu r r i cane t r a c k p r e d i c t i o n , where l ack o f conven t iona l t ropospher ic observat ions over the oceanic regions can l ead to erroneous d e p i c t i o n s o f the environmental f l o w t h a t accounts f o r much o f the storm mot ion . Opera t iona l me teo ro log i ca l s a t e l l i t e s ( p a r t i c u l a r l y geos t a t i ona ry ) have the a b i l i t y to f r e q u e n t l y sample the l a rge scale oceanic environment, making them prime t o o l s f o r m o n i t o r i n g t r o p i c a l cyclones . At the U n i v e r s i t y o f Wisconsin-Cooperat ive I n s t i t u t e f o r M e t e o r o l o g i c a l S a t e l l i t e Studies (UW-CIMSS), an e f f o r t has been underway to develop and incorpora te h i g h d e n s i t y , h i g h q u a l i t y s a t e l l i t e d e r i v e d wind observat ions i n t o analyses o f t r o p i c a l cyclone environmental wind f i e l d s i n hopes o f reduc ing t r a c k f o r e c a s t e r r o r s . This program i s a coopera t ive e f f o r t w i t h the NOAA N a t i o n a l Hurr icane Center (NHC), the A t l a n t i c Oceanographic and M e t e o r o l o g i c a l Labora tory-Hurr icane Research D i v i s i o n (AOML-HRD), the N a t i o n a l Environmental S a t e l l i t e Data and I n f o r m a t i o n Service (NESDIS), and the N a t i o n a l M e t e o r o l o g i c a l Center (NMC). The impact o f these s a t e l l i t e data on b a r o t r o p i c model hur r i cane t r a c k f o r e c a s t s i s examined here .